Treasury Budget: Record April Surplus

Bottom Line: The budget deficit saw a surplus of $308 billion, substantially more than expected, as tax payments in April set a monthly record. With this surprisingly strong revenue boost, the budget deficit for the fiscal year ending in September looks likely to come in slightly better than the OMB's estimate of $1.4 Trillion. While defense spending will likely edge higher with monetary and equipment support for Ukraine, outlays will likely continue to trend lower.  Overall, the budget deficit remains historically very substantial, but the trends are headed in the right direction.The Treasury Budget SURPLUS totaled $308.2 billion in April, better than the consensus estimate of a surplus of $260.0 billion. This compared with a deficit in April 2021 of $225.6 billion. For the first 7 months of the fiscal year, the deficit totaled $360.0 billion, a decline of $1571.8 billion from the first 7 months of the last fiscal year.
                 
Receipts ROSE by 96.6% from their year-ago level, primarily because of an increase in corporate and individual income tax receipts. On a 12-month average basis, receipts are now increasing modestly, after moving mostly sideways from 2016 through 2018.
                     
Outlays FELL by 16.4% from its year-ago levels.  On a 12-month average basis, the trend in federal outlays is sharply lower.