Case Shiller Home Prices: Further Gains, Despite Slowdown

Bottom Line:  Home prices rose again in April, even as activity started to slow with sharply higher mortgage rates. Case-Shiller's index of home prices tends to be lagged but it offers greater detail than most other indicators. Miami and Tampa took the titles of hottest markets, up 3.1 and 2.8% on the month, and an astounding 36.1% and 38.6%, respectively, over the last year.  Phoenix, San Diego, Dallas, and Vegas remained hot (up 30 - 35% year-on-year). Even the slowest markets have seen year-on-year gains of 13-14% (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, DC). Overall, supply conditions remain tight across the country, more than enough to offset the drop in demand due to lower affordability at higher mortgage rates so far. Moreover, the in-migration trends in the hottest markets remain a tailwind.