Case Shiller Home Prices: Decelerating Gains

Bottom Line:  Home prices rose again in June, but those gains were notably slower, missing expectations as higher mortgage rates started to take a toll on sales. Western markets started to see declines in June as Florida markets remained hot -- Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, and Denver saw lower prices, while Miami and Tampa were still sharply higher. Case-Shiller's home prices index is lagged but offers greater detail than most other indicators. And since May, it has shown notable deceleration across most of the country, led by once-hot markets like Seattle. Higher mortgage rates and 20+ year lows in affordability are starting to take a bit out of price gains. That said, supply remains low, and data suggest prices will likely remain reasonably supported in most markets even as sales activity slows further.Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.44% (seasonally adjusted) in June to 316.9, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.9%.  Home prices are 18.7% ABOVE their year-ago level.
 
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.4% on the month.Housing prices rose in 13 of the 20 metro areas in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
                                                                           
Minneapolis had the smallest year-over-year increase at 11.6% while Tampa had the largest year-over-year increase at 39.2%.