Jobless Claims: Surprise Jump

Bottom Line: Claims rose significantly for the first time since July as the 3rd Quarter came to a close. And while the increase was notable, it wasn't enough to change the trend yet. Claims still remain historically low. Moreover, seasonal adjustments skewed the data last week, as did anomalous-looking readings from Rhode Island and Missouri. Still, we'll keep a close eye on the data in the coming weeks to see if this was potentially a shift in trend. Our Nowcast model continues to run below the reported level of claims and has been a good predictor of the trend. It suggests a slight decline this week.Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 29k in the week ended October 1st to 219k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 206.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 230.46154k but 121k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 24th of Sep were revised down from +193k to +190k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 13.264k.Continuing Claims ROSE 15k in the week ended September 24th to 1.361M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.37075M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.392308M and 1.313M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 17th of Sep were revised down from +1.347M to +1.346M.