Consumer Confidence: Modest Rebound

Bottom Line:  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded modestly in March after surprisingly sharp declines in February. However, the index remains depressed with the expectations component below 80, a level that historically signals recession, in 12 of the last 13 months. Moreover, this month fewer survey respondents said jobs were "plentiful," and more said jobs were "not so plentiful." Respondents also said they planned to spend less on highly discretionary categories while saying they planned to spend more on health care and home and auto maintenance. Finally, year-ahead inflation expectations edged slightly higher to 6.3%. Overall, consumers remain uncertain about the outlook and high-interest rates, and they are now concerned that the jobs market might finally start to slow.

Consumer Confidence in March was nearly unchanged,  0.8 to 104.2, BELOW the 3-month average of 104.53, BELOW the 6-month average of 104.37 and -3.4 BELOW the year-ago level.The current conditions index FELL -1.9. The expectations index ROSE 2.6.The Future expectations index ROSE 2.6  to 73, BELOW the 3-month average of 73.13, BELOW the 6-month average of 76.23, and -3.7 BELOW the year-ago level.The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are 'plentiful' from the percentage who said jobs are 'hard to get' FELL -1.9  to 38.8, BELOW the 3-month average of 38.83, ABOVE the 6-month average of 35.72 and -8.3 BELOW the year-ago level.