Jobless Claims: Big Revisions, Trend Modestly Higher

Bottom Line:  Jobless claims were revised sharply higher following the annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model. Claims in the week ended March 25  were revised nearly 50k higher to 246k. Last week declined 18k to 228k but was still sharply higher than expected. With the significant revisions to the data, the trend now looks much different. The bounce in claims we saw in July and August last year was revised down, with the trend in 2022 looking mostly steady except for a sharp decline in September. More recently, claims have climbed to cycle highs. Still, the level of claims remains historically low. But these new revisions align much more closely with anecdotal evidence of layoffs and our nowcast index based on Google searches for claims.Initial Jobless Claims FELL -18 in the week ended March 31st to 228, BELOW the 4-week average of 237.75, ABOVE the 13-week average of 220.62 but 14 ABOVE the year-ago level.Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL -17.3 Continuing Claims ROSE 6 in the week ended March 24th to 1.823k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.804k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.72592k and 190 ABOVE the year-ago level.