Jobless Claims: Trending Higher

Bottom Line:  Jobless claims rose more than expected last week, rebounding to the middle of the range of the last six weeks, which is still well above last year's average.  Recall that last week the Department of Labor made annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model. The bounce in claims we saw in July and August last year was revised down, with the trend in 2022 looking mostly steady except for a sharp decline in September. And in the last six weeks, claims have climbed to cycle highs. That said, the level of claims remains historically low. But the trend bears close watching -- an upside break of 250k would signal a potential shift in labor market conditions.Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 11k in the week ended April 8th to 239k, BELOW the 4-week average of 240k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 223.23077k but 17k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 27.457k.Continuing Claims FELL -13k in the week ended April 1st to 1.81M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.8135M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.738615M but 220k ABOVE the year-ago level.