Case Shiller Home Prices: First Gain in 8 Months

Bottom Line:  Home prices rose for the first time in eight months in February, beating expectations for another slight decline. Prices were mixed across regions, with several metro statistical areas (MSAs) declining significantly. Los Angeles (down nearly 1%) and San Francisco (down 1.5%) were notable decliners. But many MSAs rebounded, including Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Cleveland, and Vegas. Year-on-year gains have cooled across all markets, with those seeing thmost significantst corrections (Seattle, San Francisco) down about 10% and those still seeing gains (Miami, Tampa) up nearly 10%. Overall, the sharp correction in home prices due to higher mortgage rates appears to be ending, with prices in most markets finding a new equilibrium amid lower affordability. We expect prices to slowly stabilize over the remainder of 2023 as supply remains tight and regular demographic-led demand continues.