Jobless Claims: Surprise Decline

Bottom Line:  Claims fell sharply last week, countering expectations for another modest increase. The Easter holiday impacted the seasonally adjusted data. For now, claims sit at the low end of the range over the last six weeks. While the level of claims remains historically low, the trend bears close watching as an upside break still looks possible. Since the Department of Labor's annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model in the first week of April, the trend in continuing claims has been sharply higher, holding near cycle highs last week. Overall, the labor market remains stubbornly tight, and there are only hints of slackening.

Initial Jobless Claims FELL -16k in the week ended April 22nd to 230k, BELOW the 4-week average of 236k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 229.61538k but 23k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL -3.478k.

Continuing Claims FELL -3k in the week ended April 15th to 1.858M, ABOVE the 4-week average of 1.8365M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.771M and 337k ABOVE the year-ago level.