JOLTS: Openings & Quits Fall

Bottom Line:  The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower-than-expected job openings, dropping to a new cycle low. Layoffs also increased modestly. While the level of openings and the rates of voluntary quits are still high, the trend has turned towards notably more slackening in the labor market. Lagged relative to most labor reports and our nowcast forecasts, the JOLTS survey is useful in its detail and has often been cited by Fed officials in recent years. Nearly all sectors have seen declining openings, with most near or below cycle highs in March. Healthcare and social assistance jobs accounted for the largest share of openings, but openings were trending sharply lower even as hiring was still trending higher. Leisure and hospitality, the next biggest, still sees a historically high level of openings, but hiring has been steadily declining for over a year. Finally, trade, transportation, and utilities have seen lower openings and lower hiring. Overall the JOLTS report shows a historically tight labor market that is finally starting to slacken more quickly, something Fed officials have been seeking for several quarters.