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ADP: Sharp Rebound
May 3, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported better-than-expected hiring in April, with payrolls rising 296k, well above the consensus estimates looking for 148k. Hiring in leisure and hospitality led the gains, with the sector adding the most jobs since last May. Education and health services also saw strong gains. But there was weakness in manufacturing, financial activities, and professional services. The largest sector, trade/transportation/utilities, saw continued positive but slower gains. Overall, the details of the report were a bit less compelling than the headline. Hiring remained robust, and there is scope for an upside beat in Friday's national payroll report. But there was no acceleration in the trend as the headline surprise might initially suggest.
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Contingent Macro