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Jobless Claims: Cycle Highs
May 11, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose sharply more than expected in the first week of May. The increase put claims nearly 20k above the highs of this cycle. While seasonal factors added to the increase, the gains were broad, and no one state's tally stood out. Overall, the labor market remains stubbornly tight, but this report is the first indication that the slow slackening might be gaining pace. One week's reading is never enough to call a new trend rate, but this bears close watching in the coming weeks.Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 22k in the week ended May 6th to 264k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 245.25k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 236.23077k, and 54k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 13.969k.Continuing Claims ROSE 12k in the week ended April 29th to 1.813M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.83M, ABOVE the 13-week average of 1.79M but 356k ABOVE the year-ago level.
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Contingent Macro