Jobless Claims: Modest Increase

Bottom Line:  Claims were slightly lower than expected last week, with the trend mostly sideways after the increase early this year. The State of Massachusetts reported lower claims again after officials in the Bay State discovered a wave of fraudulent claims in April and May. Texas and Connecticut reported higher claims, while California submitted nearly unchanged estimates last week. Overall, claims still remain modestly higher than levels seen throughout 2022, suggesting a very slow slackening in a historically very tight labor market. Continuing claims have also started to lose upward momentum, furthering the notion that the slackening will be very slow.

Initial Jobless Claims ROSE 2k in the week ended May 27th to 232k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 229.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 236.23077k and 30k ABOVE the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 5.296k.

Continuing Claims ROSE 6k in the week ended May 20th to 1.795M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.7975M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.807385M but 396k ABOVE the year-ago level.