Retail Sales: Real Negative

Bottom Line:   Retail sales were slightly stronger than expected in May, but the trend remained towards deceleration with downward revisions to prior data. Sales at auto and parts dealers were modestly higher than expected, driving the headline figure. Grocery store sales rebounded after two slow months. But the largest core category, online sales, saw tepid growth after the April rebound. Building and garden supply store sales saw sharp gains, but lower sales at miscellaneous retailers offset some of that. Overall, the trend in retail sales remained modest to weak, with the last three months of core sales annualizing at just 0.28% growth. The trend rate of nominal sales growth continues to decelerate, now below that of consumer price gains, optically negative in real terms (at least until CPI starts to decelerate more quickly).

Total US Retail Sales ROSE 0.34%  in May (consensus was -0.2 %), Mar revised down to -0.91% from -0.69%, Apr revised down to +0.37% from 0.42%.Core Retail Sales (excludes Autos, Parts & Gas) ROSE 0.4%  (consensus was +0.2 %).Sales in the Control Group (Core less food services and building supply) ROSE 0.21%  (consensus was +0.2 %).