Jobless Claims: Holding Near Cycle Highs

Bottom Line:  Claims were steady again last week, holding near the highest levels since early in the pandemic. There were slight negative revisions to the prior week's data, but no states reported significant issues. Texas officials reported that layoffs were significant in accommodation and food services, transportation and warehousing, and health care early in the month. Overall, the pace of claims is accelerating slightly higher, and most indications suggest this time could prove more lasting than earlier in the year when fraud in some states gave us a false indication of a resurgence in claims.

Initial Jobless Claims were unchanged in the week ended June 17th at 264k, ABOVE the 4-week average of 255.75k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 241.53846k and 48k ABOVE the year-ago level.  Non-seasonally adjusted Claims were nearly unchanged, -1.347k.Continuing Claims FELL -13k in the week ended June 10th to 1.759M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.77M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.801846M but 409k ABOVE the year-ago level.