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Jobless Claims: Fourth Decline
September 7, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor again, and claims in Ohio continued to fall as the state agency continued to work through fraud issues. Overall, the labor market remains off the tightest levels but still historically tight. Moreover, there are few signs that the uptrend that started in March will continue and push claims above the high end of the range, just over 260k.Initial Jobless Claims FELL -13k in the week ended September 2nd to 216k, BELOW the 4-week average of 229.25k, BELOW the 13-week average of 238k but 19k ABOVE the year-ago level. Continuing Claims FELL -40k in the week ended August 26th to 1.679M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.7015M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.716538M but 363k ABOVE the year-ago level.
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Contingent Macro