Items include
jobless claims
Economic Indicators
Sep 28, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose only slightly after falling five weeks. Seasonal factors had only a small impact on the reading last week. Moreover, there were no signs of any impact from the autoworker strike. State-level data showed only minor moves...
Sep 21, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fifth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. This latest report was influenced by seasonal factors, which had expected an increase of nearly 18k versus actual unadjusted claims that were nearly...
Sep 7, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor again, and claims in Ohio continued to fall as the state agency continued to work through fraud issues. Overall,...
Aug 31, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims fell in Hawaii after a one-week jump following the devastating fire in Maui. Ohio, which had been struggling...
Aug 24, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the second week after ticking higher in late July and early August. Seasonal adjustments were minor. Claims jumped in Hawaii following the devastating fire in Maui but were lower in Ohio, which had been struggling...
Aug 17, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell modestly last week after rising for two weeks. Seasonal adjustments were minor, and there were no state-level aberrations, although there were lingering concerns about fraud in Ohio. Claims are historically low, and the trend is mixed....
Aug 10, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the second time in six weeks, rebounding to nearly 250k. The reading was well above the average of the last four weeks but still below the highs seen in June. Claims in Ohio jumped slightly...
Aug 3, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the first time in five weeks, rebounding slightly. Still, initial and continuing claims were trending lower throughout most of July. The four-week average for claims in the final full week of July was down to...
Jul 27, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the fourth week, surprising to the downside again. We have had plenty of seasonal adjustment excuses for weeks from the Juneteenth holiday through the week after Independence Day. But those factors should be fading into...
Jul 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the third week, surprising to the downside. However, the tally was unchanged on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting the Juneteenth and 4th of July holidays continue to have a lingering impact on the headline data....
Jul 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell for the second week, surprising to the downside. Seasonal adjustments continue to impact the headline number with last week's 4th of July holiday. Unadjusted claims were higher. And with two holidays in the last four weeks...
Jul 6, 2023
Bottom Line: ADP reported sharply better-than-expected hiring again in June (the third consecutive beat). Hiring was most robust in the leisure and hospitality segment but only modestly higher than the averages of the last few months. The big surprises came...
Jun 29, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week after two weeks of readings near the cycle high. These data were collected over the week including the Juneteenth holiday. Given the holiday is a new federal holiday that has yet to be...
Jun 22, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were steady again last week, holding near the highest levels since early in the pandemic. There were slight negative revisions to the prior week's data, but no states reported significant issues. Texas officials reported that layoffs were...
Jun 15, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were nearly steady on a seasonally adjusted basis last week but rose nearly 28k on an unadjusted basis. Sitting near cycle highs, the level of claims bears close watching in the coming weeks. The most recent spike...
Jun 8, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were sharply higher than expected at 261k, the highest since October 30, 2021. Claims in Ohio jumped over 60%, accounting for over 25% of the total increase in the week. While volatility in an individual state is...
Jun 1, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were slightly lower than expected last week, with the trend mostly sideways after the increase early this year. The State of Massachusetts reported lower claims again after officials in the Bay State discovered a wave of fraudulent...
May 25, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims were sharply lower than previously reported, with the State of Massachusetts reporting sharply lower claims and revising previous weeks' data lower amid a wave of fraudulent claims in the last several weeks. Claims still remain modestly higher...
May 18, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims corrected sharply lower after a surprise increase in the prior week. Claims in Massachusetts accounted for nearly all of the volatility amid reports of a spike in fraudulent claims and a subsequent state investigation. Claims still remain...
May 11, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose sharply more than expected in the first week of May. The increase put claims nearly 20k above the highs of this cycle. While seasonal factors added to the increase, the gains were broad, and no one...
May 4, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose modestly, more than expected, in the final week of April and were near the high end of the recent range. Since the Department of Labor's annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model in the first week...
Apr 27, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, countering expectations for another modest increase. The Easter holiday impacted the seasonally adjusted data. For now, claims sit at the low end of the range over the last six weeks. While the level...
Apr 20, 2023
Bottom Line: Claims rose to 245k, reaching the high end of the range of the last two months, and still sharply higher on the year. Since the Department of Labor's annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model in the first...
Apr 13, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose more than expected last week, rebounding to the middle of the range of the last six weeks, which is still well above last year's average. Recall that last week the Department of Labor made annual...
Apr 6, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were revised sharply higher following the annual revisions to the seasonal adjustment model. Claims in the week ended March 25 were revised nearly 50k higher to 246k. Last week declined 18k to 228k but was still...
Mar 30, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose slightly more than expected last week, pushing back towards 200k. Claims in Michigan, still a state where jobless claims are heavily influenced by the auto industry, rose sharply, nearly doubling to 9.2k. While too early...
Mar 23, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell slightly last week, coming in below expectations for a modest increase. Claims have remained historically low and have shown no signs of edging higher, despite significant layoff announcements in the tech sector. To the extent...
Mar 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell sharply last week after jumping for the first time in five weeks. There were no major seasonal adjustments last week. Moreover, the surprising increases we saw in New York reversed almost entirely, while those in...
Mar 9, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose sharply last week after hitting five-week lows in late February. Increasing to 211k on a seasonally adjusted basis, the jump was even larger without the seasonal adjustments. Claims in California and New York drove the...
Mar 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in five weeks, dropping to 190k, below expectations for a rebound to 195k. Our Nowcast model has also confirmed the stubbornly low level of claims, with this week running nearly unchanged...
Feb 23, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in four weeks, countering expectations for a rebound to 200k. Our Nowcast model suggested declines last week and suggests claims have remained stubbornly low this week. While the models have forecast...
Feb 16, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were little changed last week, surprisingly holding below 200k again. The short-term trend in claims remained lower and the medium- to longer-term trends were mixed, with continuing claims still trending slightly higher. Our Nowcast model suggests...
Feb 9, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims rose sharply last week after several weeks of declines. The short-term trend in claims remained lower and the medium- to longer-term trends were mixed, with continuing claims still trending slightly higher. Our Nowcast model continues to...
Feb 2, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims surprisingly fell last week and were firmly trending lower again, having bounced in the 180-250k range for nearly a year, despite headlines about layoffs at major corporations. Moreover, the trend in continuing claims has lost all...
Jan 26, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell last week, countering expectations for a rebound in the week that included the Monday Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. While the seasonal factor was significant, weather likely played a role, with claims in California dropping...
Jan 19, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell last week, sharply more than expected. And while some of the surprises in late December and early January were due to difficult season adjustments, the latest week was free of anomalous factors. The labor market...
Jan 12, 2023
Bottom Line: Jobless claims were unchanged after seasonal adjustments, remaining just above 200k and well below December's highs. However, unadjusted claims rose over 60k. Seasonal adjustments can prove difficult around year-end, and the jump in unadjusted claims bears close watching....
Dec 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, led by anomalous declines in New York and Georgia. Expect continued volatility as we move from Thanksgiving into the December holiday season. Nonetheless, the trend still appears to be turning slightly higher... ever...
Dec 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose over 87k on an unadjusted basis, more than the seasonal factor suggested coming off the Thanksgiving week. Seasonally adjusted claims rose 4k, pushing the trend slightly higher again but still below the pace of increases seen...
Dec 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell over 50k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis last week, even more than the seasonal adjustment model suggested, pushing the reported level of claims back down to 225k. Seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving holiday are difficult as...
Nov 23, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims jump 18k to 240k last week, with the non-seasonally adjusted figures even higher. The advance was broad across most states. This report turns the trend higher ahead of some difficult seasonal adjustments in the coming weeks. Claims...
Nov 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were a touch lower last week, less than expected, as the trend remained modestly to the upside. Claims remain very low, particularly when adjusted for the working-age population, and suggest labor markets remain remarkably tight for the...
Oct 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were below expectations again last week as the labor market remained tight even as economic growth indicators continued to wane. It appears that employers are holding onto employees even as activity slows, likely fearing they won't be...
Oct 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply last week, alleviating concerns, for now, of a second wave higher, as we had seen in the summer. Claims fell nearly 12k last week, dropping back to just 214k, a level that suggests historically tight...
Oct 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose for the second week, starting the 4th Quarter with the trend edging just slightly higher but still below levels seen in July and historically quite low. Claims headed higher from March to July, but that trend...
Oct 6, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose significantly for the first time since July as the 3rd Quarter came to a close. And while the increase was notable, it wasn't enough to change the trend yet. Claims still remain historically low. Moreover, seasonal...
Sep 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell again last week, rapidly approaching the lowest levels seen early this year. Overall, claims remain historically low, and are headed lower again after trending higher from May through July. Claims suggest the labor market remains tight...
Sep 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims rose slightly last week because the previous week was revised lower. Overall, claims remain historically low, and the modest uptrend that started early in May has lost all its momentum. If anything, the trend in claims is...
Sep 15, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims continued to move lower throughout August and into September. While there were some distortions due to the Labor Day holiday, the trend is to the downside again. All this suggests the labor...
Sep 8, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims continued to move lower through the week leading up to Labor Day weekend. Moreover, there were negative revisions to the prior week's tally. The trend in claims is now mixed to lower...
Sep 1, 2022
Bottom Line: After moving higher throughout July, claims moved steadily lower throughout August, closing the final full week of the month down more than expected. Initial jobless claims hit a cyclical nadir in March, claims trended higher through July but...
Aug 25, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower for the third consecutive week. After hitting a cyclical nadir in March, claims had been steadily trending higher, suggesting the labor market was easing. But since early August, claims have been falling modestly....
Aug 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower for the second week, coming in below expectations. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a concern and bears close watching going...
Aug 11, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved a touch lower, and there were modest downward revisions to prior weeks' data. Still, the medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. The shift in trend is a big concern and bears...
Aug 4, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, mostly as expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the ninth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in...
Jul 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher again last week, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the eighth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend...
Jul 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, even more than expected, making another marginal new high for the year as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. It was the seventh consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in...
Jul 14, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year, despite the 4th of July holiday as the trend continues to creep slowly higher. This was the sixth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are...
Jul 7, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims moved higher last week, making marginal new highs for the year as the trend continued to creep slowly higher. This was the fifth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming...
Jun 30, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell inched higher, pushing above 230k with upward revisions to previously reported weeks. This was the fourth consecutive week over 220k. The medium-term averages are in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. While historically still low,...
Jun 23, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell less than expected last week with the medium-term averages in a slight uptrend after bottoming in March. This was the third week over 220k. While historically still low, the shift in trend is a big concern...
Jun 16, 2022
Bottom Line: While there have been seasonal adjustments that have skewed week-to-week comparisons, the trend in jobless claims is now moving higher again. Claims turned higher in April but were lingering in the 180-210k range for several weeks. Now, though,...
Jun 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims jumped last week due to seasonal adjustments around the Memorial Day holiday. Unadjusted claims were nearly unchanged. Looking through the uptick in volatility in the last few weeks, the four- and 13-week averages have started to turn...
Jun 2, 2022
Bottom Line: ADP reported slower job gains than expected in May. And April gains were revised modestly lower. Construction jobs were notably lower as housing activity slowed. And the gains in the leisure and hospitality sector slowed. On a trend...
May 19, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher for a third week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain. That said, we are watching the recent increase closely,...
May 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher for a second week in a row last week, but remained within the 180 - 220k range, where we expect this tight labor market should remain for many months. Moreover, unadjusted claims were lower again...
May 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims were higher last week, bouncing off the low end of what has been a new equilibrium in the 180 - 220k range. That said, much of the increase was due to seasonal factors, as the actual unadjusted...